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JACI Highlights - August 2009

Predictors of asthma risk in the presence of guidelines-based management

The most recent “Expert Panel Report: Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Management of Asthma” identifies two domains for both asthma severity and control: current impairment and future risk. Impairment is the current frequency/intensity of symptoms whereas risk represents the longitudinal features of the disease including exacerbations, loss of lung function and adverse effects from medications.

In a study by Gruchalla and colleagues, several factors were examined for their ability to predict future asthma risk in a group of 546 inner-city adolescents and young adults who were receiving guidelines-based asthma management. The factors studied included: baseline measurements of asthma symptoms and pulmonary function, presence of allergic sensitization, and markers of airway inflammation. The authors found that the baseline characteristics evaluated accounted for only a small portion of the variance for future maximum symptom days and exacerbations in these patients, 11.4% and 12.6%, respectively.

The authors' findings show that the usual predictors of future asthma exacerbations are not very useful when applied to a highly adherent population of patients with persistent asthma who are receiving guidelines-based care. Thus, future studies should focus on determining new predictors that monitor the continued fluctuation of disease that persists in compliant patients receiving quality asthma therapy.

“Asthma morbidity among inner-city adolescents receiving guidelines-based therapy: Role of predictors in the setting of high adherence” by Gruchalla et al. (JACI August 2009 Volume 124 No. 2)

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